NASDAQ · STOCK
Onto Innovation
$258.57
52W $89.40 – $386.46
52/100
$12.86B
119.7
1.54
Is ONTO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Onto Innovation (ONTO) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.76 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.24 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.44 across 9 articles, 14d). Growth Analyst remains cautious — eps declining -51.2% yoy despite any revenue growth. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.59 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.44 across 9 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 120.9 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 4.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -51.2% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 83%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 120.9 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bearish
29
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -51.2% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 38.3% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
72
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.44 across 9 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.7 to 52.2.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-5.667
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$238.55
Resistance
$315.49
Bollinger %B
0.27
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$261.28
Below
EMA 21
$279.23
Below
EMA 50
$285.46
Below
EMA 200
$234.92
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
43
Growth
35
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
119.7×
P/B Ratio
6.03×
PEG Ratio
-2.34
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$386.46
52W Low
$89.40
Quality & Growth
ROE
6.5%
ROA
5.8%
Gross Margin
48.8%
Operating Margin
10.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 119.7 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.0x; PEG ratio of -2.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.5%; Current ratio of 6.15 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.00; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (4.80); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.6%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+37.0% -> +12.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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