NASDAQ · STOCK
Oshkosh
$142.54
52W $116.77 – $180.49
60/100
—
16.3
1.23
Is OSK Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Oshkosh (OSK) Watch with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +0.25 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -19.75 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.26) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -0.9% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 15.0 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.26) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -0.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -4.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 9%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 15.0 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -0.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.26) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 29 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.9 to 59.8.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 71% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: score 62->68 (+7); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
37.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.545
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$137.25
Resistance
$143.87
Bollinger %B
0.31
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$147.59
Below
EMA 21
$146.35
Below
EMA 50
$143.89
Below
EMA 200
$140.13
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
96
Growth
61
Profitability
0
Financial Health
88
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.3×
P/B Ratio
1.98×
PEG Ratio
-1.34
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$180.49
52W Low
$116.77
Quality & Growth
ROE
14.3%
ROA
6.4%
Gross Margin
15.8%
Operating Margin
7.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.24
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.0x; PEG ratio of -1.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 1.72 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.24; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (18.35); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 9.1%; EPS growth accelerating (-62.4% -> +237.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -15.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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