NASDAQ · STOCK
Paychex Inc.
$107.54
52W $85.45 – $148.11
58/100
$37.79B
21.3
0.82
Price History (6M)
Executive Summary
6 analysts weighed in with 50% agreement on a bullish lean. Portfolio Manager: Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy. Growth Analyst: Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level. Overall recommendation: WATCH.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Positive MACD histogram signals bullish momentum.
- Higher Highs / Higher Lows structure confirms bullish price action.
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 18.7% downside vs 9.6% upside.
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.9% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bullish
75
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book is healthy enough that position-sizing here is a matter of stock selection, not portfolio constraints
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
68.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.704
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$87.44
Resistance
$117.83
Bollinger %B
0.89
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$104.85
Above
EMA 21
$102.11
Above
EMA 50
$99.08
Above
EMA 200
$105.87
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
38
Growth
54
Profitability
100
Financial Health
51
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.3×
P/B Ratio
9.83×
PEG Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
4.47%
52W High
$148.11
52W Low
$85.45
Quality & Growth
ROE
4513.0%
ROA
1053.0%
Gross Margin
8721.0%
Operating Margin
3855.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
+1688.0%
Debt / Equity
1.22
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 21.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.8x; Revenue growth (YoY) of 16.9%; EPS growth (YoY) of 6.8%; Return on equity of 45.1%; Return on assets of 10.5%; Net margin of 27.0%; Gross margin of 87.2%; Current ratio of 1.26 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.22; Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.8%; EPS growth decelerating (+35.7% -> -22.8% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Key Risks
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 18.7% downside vs 9.6% upside.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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