NASDAQ · STOCK
Paychex Inc.
$116.87
52W $85.45 – $143.58
52/100
$41.56B
23.8
0.82
Is PAYX Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Paychex Inc. (PAYX) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.19 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.81 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 16.3% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 45.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 4.1% pays you to wait — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 9.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Weekly RSI at 80 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.3% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 69%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 45.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 9.8x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Weekly RSI at 80 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 16.3% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 48.4 to 51.8.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 33% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 5 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 6 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Growth Analyst, Macro Analyst.
- New analyst(s) joined: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 35->50 (+15).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst joined: neutral at 55.
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
58.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.233
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$108.03
Resistance
$117.83
Bollinger %B
0.76
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$115.80
Above
EMA 21
$111.98
Above
EMA 50
$106.04
Above
EMA 200
$107.03
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
22
Growth
40
Profitability
1
Financial Health
51
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
23.8×
P/B Ratio
11.19×
PEG Ratio
3.53
Dividend Yield
0.04%
52W High
$143.58
52W Low
$85.45
Quality & Growth
ROE
47.1%
ROA
10.9%
Gross Margin
74.3%
Operating Margin
38.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.23
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 23.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 11.2x; PEG ratio of 3.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.5%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.3%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 1.26 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.23; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (6.49); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.8%; EPS growth decelerating (+35.7% -> -22.8% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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