NASDAQ · STOCK
Saia
$347.82
52W $249.32 – $494.71
52/100
$9.27B
33.5
2.13
Is SAIA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Saia (SAIA) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.07 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.93 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case. Technical Analyst remains cautious — rsi at 12 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.06) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 2.16 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 36.9 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- EPS declining -20.5% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 12 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 68%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− P/E of 36.9 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -20.5% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 12 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.06) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 55.4 to 51.9.
- Recommendation changed from Buy to Watch.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 43% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 5 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 80->58 (-22); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: score 48->55 (+7); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
11.4
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-7.520
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$341.62
Resistance
$354.29
Bollinger %B
-0.18
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$392.69
Below
EMA 21
$411.35
Below
EMA 50
$423.54
Below
EMA 200
$393.21
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
66
Growth
86
Profitability
0
Financial Health
83
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
33.5×
P/B Ratio
3.41×
PEG Ratio
-7.89
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$494.71
52W Low
$249.32
Quality & Growth
ROE
9.9%
ROA
7.3%
Gross Margin
16.1%
Operating Margin
11.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.10
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 33.5 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.4x; PEG ratio of -7.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 1.58 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.10; Free cash flow margin of 0.3% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (7.27); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 1.9%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+5.1% -> +88.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 31.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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