NASDAQ · STOCK
Simon Property Group
$229.37
52W $159.70 – $238.50
57/100
$74.38B
16.0
1.33
Is SPG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Simon Property Group (SPG) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.48 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.52 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 5.46) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 126.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.9% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 85.1% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 11.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 5.46 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 5.46) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.52 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 24%
of 61 Real Estate peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 126.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 11.7x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 85.1% YoY
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 5.46) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 12 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.6 to 56.5.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
51.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.031
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Bollinger %B
0.64
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$230.23
Below
EMA 21
$226.87
Above
EMA 50
$219.68
Above
EMA 200
$200.18
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
65
Growth
36
Profitability
2
Financial Health
2
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.0×
P/B Ratio
15.30×
PEG Ratio
0.12
Dividend Yield
0.04%
52W High
$238.50
52W Low
$159.70
Quality & Growth
ROE
88.6%
ROA
11.4%
Gross Margin
85.2%
Operating Margin
48.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
5.96
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 15.3x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.9%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.7%; Gross margin of 0.9%; Current ratio of 0.84 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 5.96; Free cash flow margin of 0.8% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (10.07); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.5%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-76.9% -> +244.2% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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