NASDAQ · STOCK
Starwood Property Trust
$16.60
52W $16.29 – $20.84
53/100
—
16.0
1.03
Explore STWD Further
Is STWD Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Starwood Property Trust (STWD) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 20, 2026.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Growth Analyst remains cautious — 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Positive MACD histogram signals bullish momentum.
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- Daily trend is down — entering long positions against the trend.
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
- Fundamental score is weak (29.4/100) — poor financial health or expensive valuation.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 20, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Value Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value
− Debt-to-equity of 3.25 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.25) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2975.52)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.8 to 52.8.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-19 to 2026-07-20 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
45.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.054
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$16.07
Resistance
$18.05
Bollinger %B
0.43
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$16.72
Below
EMA 21
$16.72
Below
EMA 50
$16.95
Below
EMA 200
$17.84
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
90
Growth
20
Profitability
0
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.0×
P/B Ratio
0.84×
PEG Ratio
1.50
Dividend Yield
0.12%
52W High
$20.84
52W Low
$16.29
Quality & Growth
ROE
6.1%
ROA
0.7%
Gross Margin
79.2%
Operating Margin
72.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.47
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.8x; PEG ratio of 1.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.2%; Gross margin of 0.8%; Current ratio of 0.08 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.47; Free cash flow margin of 0.6% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (1.43); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 9.9%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+5.0% -> -7.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
Key Risks
- Daily trend is down — entering long positions against the trend.
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
- Fundamental score is weak (29.4/100) — poor financial health or expensive valuation.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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