NASDAQ · STOCK
TransDigm Group
$1,253.91
52W $1123.61 – $1616.89
56/100
$70.16B
39.2
0.88
Is TDG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates TransDigm Group (TDG) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.66 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.34 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 15.7% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Bollinger bandwidth of 15.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 32%
of 158 Industrials peers
Growth Analyst
bullish
82
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.6 to 56.3.
- Committee agreement increased modestly from 57% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 7 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 77->82 (+6).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst abstained (was neutral at 45).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
49.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
2.742
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$1248.42
Resistance
$1302.18
Bollinger %B
0.49
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$1,253.88
Above
EMA 21
$1,256.89
Below
EMA 50
$1,256.25
Below
EMA 200
$1,292.99
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
34
Growth
72
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
39.2×
P/B Ratio
-7.76×
PEG Ratio
4.79
Dividend Yield
0.07%
52W High
$1616.89
52W Low
$1123.61
Quality & Growth
ROE
-21.4%
ROA
9.0%
Gross Margin
59.0%
Operating Margin
46.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-3.40
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 39.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -7.8x; PEG ratio of 4.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.2%; Gross margin of 0.6%; Current ratio of 3.52 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -3.40; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (31.79); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.4%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-23.9% -> +19.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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