NASDAQ · STOCK
Timken
$137.70
52W $70.57 – $146.37
57/100
$9.56B
31.1
1.20
Is TKR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Timken (TKR) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.77 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.23 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Some positive signals exist — news sentiment is positive (+0.57 across 7 articles, 14d) — but they are not yet strong enough to justify a Buy. The committee is monitoring for confirmation.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.57 across 7 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 30.6 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- EPS declining -5.2% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 26%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− P/E of 30.6 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -5.2% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
76
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.57 across 7 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.0 to 57.2.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 43% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 38->48 (+10).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
48.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.709
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$94.26
Resistance
$146.28
Bollinger %B
0.42
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$137.87
Below
EMA 21
$138.14
Below
EMA 50
$133.70
Above
EMA 200
$110.81
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
71
Growth
90
Profitability
0
Financial Health
95
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
31.1×
P/B Ratio
2.98×
PEG Ratio
-5.60
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$146.37
52W Low
$70.57
Quality & Growth
ROE
9.1%
ROA
4.3%
Gross Margin
28.4%
Operating Margin
12.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.69
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 31.1 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.0x; PEG ratio of -5.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 2.88 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.69; Free cash flow margin of 0.7% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (5.51); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.1%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-16.8% -> +46.5% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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