NASDAQ · STOCK
Upstart Holdings
$32.73
52W $23.96 – $87.30
52/100
$3.18B
64.4
2.19
Price History (6M)
Executive Summary
7 analysts weighed in with 43% agreement on a bullish lean. Portfolio Manager: Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy. Value Analyst: P/E of 63.4 is expensive by classic value standards. Overall recommendation: WATCH.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- MACD histogram is negative (-0.180) — bearish momentum.
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Value Analyst
bearish
28
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 63.4 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
47
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Revenue growing 57.7% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 5 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bullish
75
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book is healthy enough that position-sizing here is a matter of stock selection, not portfolio constraints
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
46.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.180
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$31.93
Resistance
$35.80
Bollinger %B
0.47
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$33.28
Below
EMA 21
$32.87
Below
EMA 50
$32.02
Above
EMA 200
$37.86
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
21
Growth
69
Profitability
45
Financial Health
55
Valuation
P/E Ratio
64.4×
P/B Ratio
5.33×
PEG Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
—
52W High
$87.30
52W Low
$23.96
Quality & Growth
ROE
729.0%
ROA
201.0%
Gross Margin
8218.0%
Operating Margin
411.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
+5769.0%
Debt / Equity
2.29
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 64.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.3x; Revenue growth (YoY) of 57.7%; Return on equity of 7.3%; Return on assets of 2.0%; Net margin of 4.3%; Gross margin of 82.2%; Current ratio of 2.15 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.29; Most recent quarter missed estimates by 29.9%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (-11.5% -> -34.8% QoQ); Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
Key Risks
- MACD histogram is negative (-0.180) — bearish momentum.
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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