NASDAQ · STOCK
Upstart Holdings
$27.45
52W $23.96 – $85.31
45/100
$2.63B
53.8
2.27
Is UPST Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Upstart Holdings (UPST) Watch with a composite score of 45/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +14.76 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -5.24 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 57.7% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 2.22 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 52.4 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 5.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.29 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
45/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 99%
of 141 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bearish
28
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 52.4 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
47
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Revenue growing 57.7% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
47
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 45.5 to 45.2.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 57% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 41->47 (+6).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
36.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.323
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$26.23
Resistance
$35.80
Bollinger %B
0.25
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$27.88
Below
EMA 21
$29.35
Below
EMA 50
$30.47
Below
EMA 200
$36.59
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
56
Growth
38
Profitability
0
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
10
Valuation
P/E Ratio
53.8×
P/B Ratio
3.63×
PEG Ratio
0.03
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$85.31
52W Low
$23.96
Quality & Growth
ROE
6.7%
ROA
1.8%
Gross Margin
95.7%
Operating Margin
4.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.70
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 53.8 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.6x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 1.0%; Current ratio of 4.03 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.70; Free cash flow margin of 1.1% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-2.96); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 29.9%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (-11.5% -> -34.8% QoQ); Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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