NASDAQ · ETF
United States Oil Fund
$124.77
52W $65.99 – $154.08
55/100
—
—
2.22
Explore USO Further
Is USO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates United States Oil Fund (USO) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated July 27, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.66 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.34 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 39.2% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- RSI at or above 70 signals overbought conditions — bearish entry bias.
- Positive MACD histogram signals bullish momentum.
- Daily trend: uptrend.
- Weekly trend: uptrend.
- Daily and weekly trends are both bullish — multi-timeframe alignment, highest confidence.
Bear Case
- RSI is overbought at 76.6 — momentum may be exhausted.
- Stochastic RSI (92.4) confirms overbought conditions.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 47.6% downside vs 12.7% upside.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 27, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 85%
of 178 Financial Services peers
Technical Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 77 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 39.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 6 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.3 to 55.3.
Comparing 2026-07-26 to 2026-07-27 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
76.6
Overbought
MACD Histogram
3.527
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$71.57
Resistance
$153.99
Bollinger %B
0.94
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$128.32
Below
EMA 21
$122.56
Above
EMA 50
$122.28
Above
EMA 200
$106.31
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
P/E Ratio
—
P/B Ratio
—
PEG Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
—
52W High
$154.08
52W Low
$65.99
Quality & Growth
ROE
—
ROA
—
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
—
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
—
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
Key Risks
- RSI is overbought at 76.6 — momentum may be exhausted.
- Stochastic RSI (92.4) confirms overbought conditions.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 47.6% downside vs 12.7% upside.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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