NASDAQ · STOCK
Valero Energy
$312.89
52W $130.78 – $320.24
58/100
$92.91B
13.0
0.55
Is VLO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Valero Energy (VLO) Watch with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +1.52 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -18.48 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). The main limiting factor is bollinger bandwidth of 19.5% signals elevated volatility. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 17.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 383.8% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -2.8% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 76 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 19.5% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 42%
of 40 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 17.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
Growth Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 383.8% YoY
− Revenue declining -2.8% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 19.5% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
67
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.29 across 78 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.1 to 58.5.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 57% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
67.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.635
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Bollinger %B
0.76
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$305.92
Above
EMA 21
$295.85
Above
EMA 50
$277.00
Above
EMA 200
$227.73
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
89
Growth
95
Profitability
0
Financial Health
85
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.0×
P/B Ratio
3.68×
PEG Ratio
0.01
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$320.24
52W Low
$130.78
Quality & Growth
ROE
9.9%
ROA
4.0%
Gross Margin
11.2%
Operating Margin
7.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.45
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 13.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.7x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.1%; Current ratio of 1.64 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.45; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (35.65); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 22.7%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+10.5% -> +197.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 450.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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