NASDAQ · STOCK
Waste Management
$226.66
52W $194.11 – $248.13
53/100
$90.56B
32.0
0.45
Is WM Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Waste Management (WM) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.46 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.54 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 38 articles, 14d). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 28.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 38 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 31.9 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 8.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.29 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 64%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 28.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 31.9 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 38 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened significantly from 64.0 to 52.5.
- Recommendation changed from Buy to Watch.
- Committee agreement fell sharply from 80% to 43%.
- New bearish signals: 8 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
- New analyst(s) joined: Risk Analyst, Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 85->62 (-22).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst joined: bearish at 32.
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst joined: neutral at 45.
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
32.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-1.571
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$222.32
Resistance
$230.25
Bollinger %B
0.01
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$233.32
Below
EMA 21
$232.73
Below
EMA 50
$229.01
Below
EMA 200
$225.37
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
11
Growth
57
Profitability
1
Financial Health
8
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
32.0×
P/B Ratio
9.18×
PEG Ratio
6.55
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$248.13
52W Low
$194.11
Quality & Growth
ROE
27.1%
ROA
5.9%
Gross Margin
35.0%
Operating Margin
18.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.35
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 32.0 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.2x; PEG ratio of 6.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 0.91 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.35; Free cash flow margin of 0.5% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (8.88); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.0%; EPS growth accelerating (-6.2% -> +11.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 5.2%; Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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