NASDAQ · STOCK
APi Group
$39.72
52W $33.40 – $49.99
55/100
$17.15B
-59.2
1.60
Is APG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates APi Group (APG) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.34 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.66 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 52.9 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.62 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.39 across 13 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 52.9 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 4.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 46%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bearish
25
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 52.9 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.39 across 13 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.8 to 54.7.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 5 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 60->77 (+17); +2 bullish signal(s).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: score 76->70 (-6); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 46->54 (+8).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
48.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.028
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$38.84
Resistance
$46.79
Bollinger %B
0.37
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$39.53
Above
EMA 21
$40.18
Below
EMA 50
$41.23
Below
EMA 200
$40.35
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
83
Growth
83
Profitability
0
Financial Health
75
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-59.2×
P/B Ratio
4.88×
PEG Ratio
0.17
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$49.99
52W Low
$33.40
Quality & Growth
ROE
8.9%
ROA
3.4%
Gross Margin
29.3%
Operating Margin
6.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.09
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -59.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.9x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 1.39 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.09; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (1.56); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.3%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-27.3% -> +37.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 12.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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