NASDAQ · STOCK
Erie Indemnity
$241.40
52W $204.63 – $380.67
56/100
$11.18B
20.8
0.29
Is ERIE Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.28 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.72 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Growth Analyst remains cautious — growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 25.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.5% pays you to wait — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 12 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 26.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 74%
of 141 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 25.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 5.8x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 26.1% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 12 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.2 to 55.7.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 71% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
58.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.305
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$234.49
Resistance
$246.66
Bollinger %B
0.60
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$234.21
Above
EMA 21
$232.78
Above
EMA 50
$232.41
Above
EMA 200
$262.19
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
84
Growth
42
Profitability
1
Financial Health
69
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
20.8×
P/B Ratio
3.17×
PEG Ratio
-1.55
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$380.67
52W Low
$204.63
Quality & Growth
ROE
24.5%
ROA
16.7%
Gross Margin
8.0%
Operating Margin
17.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 20.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.2x; PEG ratio of -1.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.1%; Current ratio of 1.25 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.00; Free cash flow margin of 0.8% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (11.88); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.2%; EPS growth decelerating (+138.0% -> +19.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 3.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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