NASDAQ · STOCK
Fastenal
$47.72
52W $38.97 – $50.63
58/100
$54.75B
40.4
0.71
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is FAST Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Fastenal (FAST) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.67 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.33 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.03) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Growth Analyst remains cautious — 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 34.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.03) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 40.3 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 11.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 19%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 34.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 40.3 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.03) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 25 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.1 to 58.3.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 57% to 43%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: score 54->49 (-5); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
59.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.145
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$43.47
Resistance
$48.45
Bollinger %B
0.78
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$47.04
Above
EMA 21
$46.70
Above
EMA 50
$46.25
Above
EMA 200
$44.88
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
0
Growth
46
Profitability
1
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
40.4×
P/B Ratio
13.46×
PEG Ratio
3.00
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$50.63
52W Low
$38.97
Quality & Growth
ROE
31.9%
ROA
24.9%
Gross Margin
44.7%
Operating Margin
20.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.11
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 40.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 13.5x; PEG ratio of 3.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 0.2%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 4.18 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.11; Free cash flow margin of 0.8% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (0.90); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.3%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+15.4% -> +10.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 13.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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