NASDAQ · STOCK
Moody's Corporation
$477.96
52W $402.28 – $546.88
50/100
$82.86B
30.3
1.33
Is MCO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Moody's Corporation (MCO) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.64 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.36 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 34.0% yoy. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.73) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 79.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 34.0% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.34 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 29.6 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 22.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.73 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Daily trend (uptrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (downtrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 90%
of 141 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 79.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 29.6 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 34.0% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.73) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.4 to 50.4.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 57% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
41.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-3.248
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$466.75
Resistance
$481.87
Bollinger %B
0.23
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$483.83
Below
EMA 21
$483.03
Below
EMA 50
$473.13
Above
EMA 200
$471.80
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
46
Growth
74
Profitability
2
Financial Health
17
Cash Flow
38
Valuation
P/E Ratio
30.3×
P/B Ratio
27.75×
PEG Ratio
0.89
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$546.88
52W Low
$402.28
Quality & Growth
ROE
60.7%
ROA
15.5%
Gross Margin
71.9%
Operating Margin
45.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.49
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 30.3 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 27.8x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.6%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 0.3%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 1.19 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.49; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (19.36); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 9.4%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+19.0% -> +8.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 31.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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