NASDAQ · STOCK
Pegasystems
$30.54
52W $25.10 – $68.10
56/100
$5.02B
16.1
0.87
Is PEGA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Pegasystems (PEGA) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 7 analysts with 86% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.67 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.33 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 48.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 59.6% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 12.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 26.9% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
86%
Analysts
7
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 30%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 48.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 12.9x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 59.6% YoY
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 26.9% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.1 to 56.3.
- Conviction strengthened -- analysts aligned more closely.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 57% to 86%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 64->59 (-5).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
54.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.170
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$29.95
Resistance
$32.04
Bollinger %B
0.51
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$29.76
Above
EMA 21
$30.21
Above
EMA 50
$32.03
Below
EMA 200
$40.59
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
65
Growth
61
Profitability
1
Financial Health
61
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.1×
P/B Ratio
9.12×
PEG Ratio
0.34
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$68.10
52W Low
$25.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
50.0%
ROA
24.1%
Gross Margin
75.6%
Operating Margin
9.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.10
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.1x; PEG ratio of 0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.5%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 0.2%; Gross margin of 0.8%; Current ratio of 1.06 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.10; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (3.01); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 21.0%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-39.5% -> -23.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 25.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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