NASDAQ · STOCK
Royal Gold
$193.91
52W $150.75 – $306.25
60/100
—
22.3
0.45
Explore RGLD Further
Is RGLD Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Royal Gold (RGLD) Watch with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 21, 2026.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.13) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Technical Analyst remains cautious — price structure making lower highs and lower lows. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- RSI at or below 30 signals oversold conditions — bullish entry bias.
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- MACD histogram is negative (-0.323) — bearish momentum.
- Daily trend is down — entering long positions against the trend.
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 9.8% downside vs 2.0% upside.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 21, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− P/E of 25.3 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 71.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.13) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.36 across 11 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2975.52)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.0 to 60.0.
Comparing 2026-07-20 to 2026-07-21 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
26.9
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.323
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$168.94
Resistance
$191.12
Bollinger %B
0.09
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$192.81
Above
EMA 21
$198.77
Below
EMA 50
$211.31
Below
EMA 200
$220.53
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
87
Growth
59
Profitability
1
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
8
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.3×
P/B Ratio
2.14×
PEG Ratio
0.58
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$306.25
52W Low
$150.75
Quality & Growth
ROE
6.5%
ROA
4.9%
Gross Margin
68.5%
Operating Margin
64.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.08
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 22.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.1x; PEG ratio of 0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.5%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 3.52 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.08; Free cash flow margin of -0.3% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-2.89); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 9.1%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-6.8% -> +41.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Key Risks
- MACD histogram is negative (-0.323) — bearish momentum.
- Daily trend is down — entering long positions against the trend.
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 9.8% downside vs 2.0% upside.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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