NASDAQ · STOCK
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
$68.47
52W $52.00 – $75.34
52/100
—
36.5
1.80
Explore SMG Further
Is SMG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 20, 2026.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 20.11) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Positive MACD histogram signals bullish momentum.
- Daily trend: uptrend.
- Daily uptrend conflicts with weekly downtrend — buying against the higher timeframe trend is higher risk.
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- Weekly trend is bearish while daily is bullish — against the higher-timeframe trend.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 5.7% downside vs 1.5% upside.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 20, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Value Analyst
bearish
34
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ Dividend yield of 3.7% pays you to wait
− P/E of 36.7 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 243.7% YoY
− Revenue declining -1.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 20.11) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2975.52)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.3 to 52.3.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-19 to 2026-07-20 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
56.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.213
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$65.36
Resistance
$70.39
Bollinger %B
0.68
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$68.40
Above
EMA 21
$66.73
Above
EMA 50
$64.60
Above
EMA 200
$62.71
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
71
Growth
87
Profitability
0
Financial Health
70
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
36.5×
P/B Ratio
-14.05×
PEG Ratio
0.17
Dividend Yield
0.04%
52W High
$75.34
52W Low
$52.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
-40.6%
ROA
5.3%
Gross Margin
32.5%
Operating Margin
13.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-8.19
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 36.5 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -14.1x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.4%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 1.27 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -8.19; Free cash flow margin of 0.8% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (6.54); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.5%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+60.7% -> +688.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Key Risks
- Weekly trend is bearish while daily is bullish — against the higher-timeframe trend.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 5.7% downside vs 1.5% upside.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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