NASDAQ · STOCK
Valvoline
$39.43
52W $28.50 – $41.33
51/100
—
59.0
1.00
Explore VVV Further
Is VVV Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Valvoline (VVV) Watch with a composite score of 51/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 20, 2026.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 3.90) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Daily trend: uptrend.
- Weekly trend: uptrend.
- Daily and weekly trends are both bullish — multi-timeframe alignment, highest confidence.
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- MACD histogram is negative (-0.043) — bearish momentum.
- Fundamental score is weak (28.4/100) — poor financial health or expensive valuation.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 20, 2026
Overall Committee Score
51/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 28.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 54.1 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -64.7% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.90) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2975.52)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.2 to 51.2.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-19 to 2026-07-20 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
57.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.043
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$39.47
Resistance
$39.59
Bollinger %B
0.66
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$39.30
Above
EMA 21
$38.66
Above
EMA 50
$37.20
Above
EMA 200
$35.41
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
32
Growth
73
Profitability
1
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
59.0×
P/B Ratio
14.29×
PEG Ratio
1.06
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$41.33
52W Low
$28.50
Quality & Growth
ROE
62.3%
ROA
7.9%
Gross Margin
38.5%
Operating Margin
17.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
5.75
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 59.0 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 14.3x; PEG ratio of 1.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.6%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 0.73 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 5.75; Free cash flow margin of 0.3% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (0.78); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 18.1%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-17.8% -> +10.8% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
Key Risks
- MACD histogram is negative (-0.043) — bearish momentum.
- Fundamental score is weak (28.4/100) — poor financial health or expensive valuation.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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