NASDAQ · STOCK
Alcoa
$45.24
52W $28.11 – $84.38
56/100
$11.94B
9.2
1.63
Is AA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Alcoa (AA) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.69 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.31 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 9.4 is inexpensive for the broad market. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 19.9% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 9.4 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 19.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.64 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 19.9% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 40%
of 54 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 9.4 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 19.9% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.5 to 56.3.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish.
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
46.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.599
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$43.30
Resistance
$45.47
Bollinger %B
0.38
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$44.90
Above
EMA 21
$47.44
Below
EMA 50
$53.64
Below
EMA 200
$54.47
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
99
Growth
85
Profitability
1
Financial Health
81
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
9.2×
P/B Ratio
1.62×
PEG Ratio
0.34
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$84.38
52W Low
$28.11
Quality & Growth
ROE
18.9%
ROA
7.2%
Gross Margin
18.8%
Operating Margin
8.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.30
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 9.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.6x; PEG ratio of 0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 1.53 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.30; Free cash flow margin of 0.3% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (1.33); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.1%; EPS growth accelerating (+11.1% -> +51.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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