NASDAQ · STOCK
CF Industries
$116.83
52W $75.42 – $141.96
62/100
$17.52B
10.1
0.41
Price History (6M)
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Executive Summary
6 analysts weighed in with 50% agreement on a bullish lean. Portfolio Manager: Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy. Risk Analyst: Bollinger bandwidth of 17.2% signals elevated volatility. Overall recommendation: WATCH.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- RSI at or above 70 signals overbought conditions — bearish entry bias.
- Positive MACD histogram signals bullish momentum.
- Weekly trend: uptrend.
- Daily downtrend but weekly uptrend — possible early reversal but not yet confirmed on the daily.
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- RSI is overbought at 70.3 — momentum may be exhausted.
- Stochastic RSI (83.7) confirms overbought conditions.
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 6.0% downside vs 2.4% upside.
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Growth Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 70 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 17.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 18 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bullish
75
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book is healthy enough that position-sizing here is a matter of stock selection, not portfolio constraints
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
70.3
Overbought
MACD Histogram
1.756
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$109.80
Resistance
$119.57
Bollinger %B
0.96
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$112.78
Above
EMA 21
$111.23
Above
EMA 50
$113.00
Above
EMA 200
$104.85
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
92
Growth
81
Profitability
87
Financial Health
96
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.1×
P/B Ratio
2.49×
PEG Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
1.75%
52W High
$141.96
52W Low
$75.42
Quality & Growth
ROE
3517.0%
ROA
1241.0%
Gross Margin
3913.0%
Operating Margin
3648.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
+2085.0%
Debt / Equity
0.66
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.5x; Revenue growth (YoY) of 20.9%; EPS growth (YoY) of 46.8%; Return on equity of 35.2%; Return on assets of 12.4%; Net margin of 23.7%; Gross margin of 39.1%; Current ratio of 3.37 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.66; Most recent quarter beat estimates by 8.2%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+44.1% -> -9.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Key Risks
- RSI is overbought at 70.3 — momentum may be exhausted.
- Stochastic RSI (83.7) confirms overbought conditions.
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 6.0% downside vs 2.4% upside.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
Get the Full CF Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →
Mobile