NASDAQ · STOCK
CF Industries
$125.19
52W $75.42 – $141.96
61/100
$19.23B
11.2
0.39
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is CF Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates CF Industries (CF) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.39 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.61 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 10.9 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 35.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 46.8% YoY — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure (LH_LL) contradicts the uptrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.4% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 5%
of 54 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 10.9 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 46.8% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− Price structure (LH_LL) contradicts the uptrend -- mixed signals
Risk Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− Bollinger bandwidth of 16.4% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.39 across 13 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.1 to 60.6.
- Recommendation changed from Watch to Buy.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 71% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 35->52 (+18); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
58.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.291
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$109.80
Resistance
$130.39
Bollinger %B
0.73
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$124.09
Above
EMA 21
$120.77
Above
EMA 50
$117.66
Above
EMA 200
$107.39
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
89
Growth
62
Profitability
1
Financial Health
96
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
11.2×
P/B Ratio
3.61×
PEG Ratio
0.24
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$141.96
52W Low
$75.42
Quality & Growth
ROE
30.1%
ROA
10.3%
Gross Margin
40.4%
Operating Margin
35.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.68
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 11.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.6x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.2%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 3.54 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.68; Free cash flow margin of 0.6% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (10.51); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 8.2%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+44.1% -> -9.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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