NASDAQ · STOCK
Alaska Air Group
$47.42
52W $33.03 – $65.88
55/100
$5.29B
-30.0
1.28
Is ALK Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Alaska Air Group (ALK) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.65 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.35 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — current ratio of 0.50 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.30 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 45 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- ROE of only -4.5% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.50 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 50%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -4.5% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.50 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 45 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.6 to 55.4.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 57% to 43%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
52.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.042
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$46.41
Resistance
$47.97
Bollinger %B
0.53
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$46.90
Above
EMA 21
$47.18
Above
EMA 50
$46.48
Above
EMA 200
$46.61
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
58
Profitability
0
Financial Health
11
Cash Flow
8
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-30.0×
P/B Ratio
1.46×
PEG Ratio
0.18
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$65.88
52W Low
$33.03
Quality & Growth
ROE
2.4%
ROA
0.5%
Gross Margin
94.6%
Operating Margin
-1.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.08
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -30.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.5x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.0%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of -0.0%; Gross margin of 0.9%; Current ratio of 0.55 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.08; Free cash flow margin of -0.3% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-3.11); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 8.4%; EPS growth accelerating (-490.7% -> +45.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -151.7%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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