NASDAQ · STOCK
Allison Transmission
$114.58
52W $76.01 – $137.62
52/100
$9.50B
17.7
0.95
Is ALSN Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Allison Transmission (ALSN) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.08 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.92 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.55) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 29.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.18 across 11 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 4.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.55 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -25.5% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.55) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 75%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 29.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 4.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -25.5% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.55) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.18 across 11 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.5 to 51.9.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 71% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 58->48 (-10); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
39.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.073
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$109.44
Resistance
$121.75
Bollinger %B
0.37
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$117.02
Below
EMA 21
$116.95
Below
EMA 50
$117.35
Below
EMA 200
$111.65
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
78
Growth
83
Profitability
1
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
17.7×
P/B Ratio
5.06×
PEG Ratio
-0.68
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$137.62
52W Low
$76.01
Quality & Growth
ROE
33.4%
ROA
10.2%
Gross Margin
40.8%
Operating Margin
24.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.24
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 17.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.1x; PEG ratio of -0.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 1.85 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.24; Free cash flow margin of 0.8% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (7.85); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 22.3%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-0.6% -> +58.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full ALSN Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →