NASDAQ · STOCK
Axalta
$35.81
52W $24.94 – $36.62
52/100
$7.66B
22.0
1.24
Is AXTA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Axalta (AXTA) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.92 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.08 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 20 articles, 14d). Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 16.0% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -0.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -20.2% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 71 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.0% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 72%
of 54 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -0.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 71 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 16.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 20 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 58.0 to 52.1.
- Recommendation changed from Buy to Watch.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell sharply from 67% to 43%.
- New bearish signals: 7 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Value Analyst.
- New analyst(s) joined: Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst joined: bearish at 35.
- Technical Analyst: score 69->61 (-8); +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 63->58 (-6).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
68.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.329
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$34.66
Resistance
$36.84
Bollinger %B
0.95
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$34.44
Above
EMA 21
$33.70
Above
EMA 50
$32.69
Above
EMA 200
$31.30
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
83
Growth
80
Profitability
0
Financial Health
63
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.0×
P/B Ratio
3.04×
PEG Ratio
-1.09
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$36.62
52W Low
$24.94
Quality & Growth
ROE
16.1%
ROA
5.0%
Gross Margin
32.6%
Operating Margin
13.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.22
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 22.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.0x; PEG ratio of -1.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 1.53 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.22; Free cash flow margin of 0.7% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (2.31); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 8.2%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-5.1% -> +28.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 12.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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