NASDAQ · STOCK
Burlington Stores
$368.97
52W $240.49 – $378.33
56/100
$23.19B
37.8
1.46
Is BURL Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Burlington Stores (BURL) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.40 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.60 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 22.5% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 37.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 37.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 10.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 22.5% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 46%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 37.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 37.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 22.5% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.9 to 55.6.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 61->69 (+8).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
67.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
2.634
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.81
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$361.18
Above
EMA 21
$349.19
Above
EMA 50
$336.21
Above
EMA 200
$309.81
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
19
Growth
68
Profitability
1
Financial Health
15
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
37.8×
P/B Ratio
12.87×
PEG Ratio
2.01
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$378.33
52W Low
$240.49
Quality & Growth
ROE
33.8%
ROA
6.2%
Gross Margin
44.0%
Operating Margin
7.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.20
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 37.8 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 12.9x; PEG ratio of 2.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 1.16 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.20; Free cash flow margin of 0.3% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (6.81); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 10.9%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+171.7% -> -58.9% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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