NASDAQ · STOCK
Johnson Controls International
$146.61
52W $103.07 – $151.18
55/100
$88.84B
25.4
1.32
Is JCI Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Johnson Controls International (JCI) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.71 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.29 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — current ratio of 0.93 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 25.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 49.1% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 25.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 5.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Revenue declining -3.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.93 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 48%
of 54 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 25.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 25.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 49.1% YoY
− Revenue declining -3.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.93 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 32 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.0 to 55.3.
- High-conviction consensus weakened -- analysts became more divided.
- Committee agreement fell sharply from 86% to 43%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 5 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Risk Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 52->35 (-18).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 48->69 (+20); +1 bearish signal(s); +4 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: score 55->48 (-7); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
65.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.293
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$132.18
Resistance
$151.16
Bollinger %B
1.06
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$142.95
Above
EMA 21
$142.56
Above
EMA 50
$141.91
Above
EMA 200
$130.88
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
60
Growth
71
Profitability
1
Financial Health
53
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
25.4×
P/B Ratio
6.60×
PEG Ratio
0.36
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$151.18
52W Low
$103.07
Quality & Growth
ROE
25.5%
ROA
8.7%
Gross Margin
36.6%
Operating Margin
13.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.68
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 25.4 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.6x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 0.97 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.68; Free cash flow margin of 0.8% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (3.29); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.9%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+33.7% -> +19.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 35.2%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full JCI Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →