NASDAQ · STOCK
Li Auto Inc.
$13.64
52W $11.65 – $27.10
49/100
$13.77B
-51.8
0.55
Is LI Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Li Auto Inc. (LI) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.71 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.29 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- ROE of only -2.5% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -24.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 78%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− ROE of only -2.5% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -24.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 16.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 48.9 to 49.3.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 57% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
68.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.264
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$11.65
Resistance
$19.29
Bollinger %B
0.98
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$13.07
Above
EMA 21
$12.86
Above
EMA 50
$13.65
Below
EMA 200
$17.16
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
31
Profitability
0
Financial Health
95
Cash Flow
11
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-51.8×
P/B Ratio
1.33×
PEG Ratio
0.42
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$27.10
52W Low
$11.65
Quality & Growth
ROE
1.5%
ROA
0.7%
Gross Margin
16.0%
Operating Margin
-3.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.25
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -51.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.3x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.0%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of -0.0%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 1.88 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.25; Free cash flow margin of 1.4% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-18.25); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 87.7%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-160.8% -> +100.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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