NASDAQ · STOCK
Louisiana-Pacific
$72.36
52W $66.12 – $102.86
53/100
$5.06B
61.4
1.59
Is LPX Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.33 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.67 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -13.0% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.61 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 61.3 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- ROE of only 4.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -13.0% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -79.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 61%
of 54 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
44
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− P/E of 61.3 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -13.0% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.7 to 52.7.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->61 (+3).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 52->42 (-10); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.090
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$71.45
Resistance
$72.42
Bollinger %B
0.34
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$73.32
Below
EMA 21
$73.94
Below
EMA 50
$74.48
Below
EMA 200
$79.36
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
59
Growth
76
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
8
Valuation
P/E Ratio
61.4×
P/B Ratio
2.93×
PEG Ratio
-0.77
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$102.86
52W Low
$66.12
Quality & Growth
ROE
8.4%
ROA
5.6%
Gross Margin
19.8%
Operating Margin
5.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.22
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 61.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.9x; PEG ratio of -0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 3.27 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.22; Free cash flow margin of -0.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-0.09); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 218.0%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-91.7% -> +1166.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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