NASDAQ · STOCK
LyondellBasell Industries
$62.06
52W $41.58 – $83.94
52/100
$20.04B
-21.9
0.36
Is LYB Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.57 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.43 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 19 articles, 14d). Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 18.8% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 4.6% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 19 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- ROE of only -7.4% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -22.0% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 68%
of 54 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -7.4% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -22.0% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 19 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.3 to 52.4.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->66 (+9); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
66.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.540
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$53.16
Resistance
$62.46
Bollinger %B
0.83
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$60.25
Above
EMA 21
$59.57
Above
EMA 50
$61.26
Above
EMA 200
$61.67
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
98
Growth
71
Profitability
0
Financial Health
30
Cash Flow
38
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-21.9×
P/B Ratio
1.88×
PEG Ratio
0.03
Dividend Yield
0.07%
52W High
$83.94
52W Low
$41.58
Quality & Growth
ROE
-7.4%
ROA
-2.2%
Gross Margin
-23.0%
Operating Margin
4.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.31
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -21.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.9x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.1%; Return on assets of -0.0%; Net margin of -0.0%; Gross margin of -0.2%; Current ratio of 0.00 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.31; Free cash flow margin of 1.3% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (12.36); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 24.7%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+288.5% -> +777.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 593.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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