NASDAQ · STOCK
Mattel
$15.10
52W $12.73 – $22.48
52/100
$4.39B
9.6
0.74
Is MAT Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Mattel (MAT) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.07 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.93 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 8.8 is inexpensive for the broad market. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -0.2% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 8.8 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 22.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -0.2% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 21.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 75%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 8.8 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bearish
25
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Revenue declining -0.2% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 21.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.1 to 51.9.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 57% to 43%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish.
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
64.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.157
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$14.75
Resistance
$15.56
Bollinger %B
0.80
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$14.86
Above
EMA 21
$14.47
Above
EMA 50
$14.43
Above
EMA 200
$16.15
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
63
Growth
31
Profitability
0
Financial Health
82
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
9.6×
P/B Ratio
2.13×
PEG Ratio
14.99
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$22.48
52W Low
$12.73
Quality & Growth
ROE
17.8%
ROA
6.0%
Gross Margin
47.9%
Operating Margin
9.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.23
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 9.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.1x; PEG ratio of 15.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.5%; Current ratio of 2.06 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.23; Free cash flow margin of 0.6% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (1.12); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 6.8%; EPS growth decelerating (-56.2% -> -151.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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