NASDAQ · STOCK
Mosaic Company
$22.11
52W $19.80 – $36.99
51/100
$7.03B
9.4
0.82
Is MOS Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Mosaic Company (MOS) Watch with a composite score of 51/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.45 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.55 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 0.6x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.9% pays you to wait — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 157.4 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- ROE of only 0.4% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- EPS declining -88.9% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
51/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 83%
of 54 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 0.6x is a discount to asset value
− P/E of 157.4 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -88.9% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.8 to 50.5.
- Conviction changed from moderate to high.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 67% to 83%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
45.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.036
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$19.80
Resistance
$24.49
Bollinger %B
0.49
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$22.45
Below
EMA 21
$22.28
Below
EMA 50
$22.45
Below
EMA 200
$25.11
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
25
Profitability
0
Financial Health
69
Cash Flow
8
Valuation
P/E Ratio
9.4×
P/B Ratio
0.59×
PEG Ratio
0.09
Dividend Yield
0.04%
52W High
$36.99
52W Low
$19.80
Quality & Growth
ROE
4.5%
ROA
2.2%
Gross Margin
13.9%
Operating Margin
3.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.10
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 9.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.6x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.0%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.1%; Current ratio of 1.25 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.10; Free cash flow margin of -0.6% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.54); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 79.1%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth roughly steady (-78.8% -> -77.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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