NASDAQ · STOCK
NewMarket Corporation
$850.69
52W $580.03 – $876.33
53/100
$7.82B
44.1
0.57
Is NEU Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates NewMarket Corporation (NEU) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.33 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.67 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d). Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -3.5% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 24.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -3.5% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -12.9% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 85 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 76 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 61%
of 54 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 24.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
Growth Analyst
bearish
23
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Revenue declining -3.5% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 85 is in overbought territory
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.8 to 52.7.
- New bearish signals: 5 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->66 (+8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 69->61 (-8); +3 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
74.7
Overbought
MACD Histogram
8.585
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$679.87
Resistance
$874.29
Bollinger %B
1.07
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$806.51
Above
EMA 21
$790.67
Above
EMA 50
$770.70
Above
EMA 200
$719.92
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
52
Growth
48
Profitability
1
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
44.1×
P/B Ratio
4.35×
PEG Ratio
-0.71
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$876.33
52W Low
$580.03
Quality & Growth
ROE
23.5%
ROA
12.0%
Gross Margin
31.5%
Operating Margin
20.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.51
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 44.1 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.3x; PEG ratio of -0.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.2%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 2.25 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.51; Free cash flow margin of 0.8% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (53.07); EPS growth decelerating (+45.9% -> +15.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 22.8%
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