NASDAQ · STOCK
Packaging Corporation of America
$246.66
52W $189.03 – $258.81
53/100
$21.90B
31.8
0.82
Is PKG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.99 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.01 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 18.1% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 16.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 31.7 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 4.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -23.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 65%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 16.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 31.7 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -23.3% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.1% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 37 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.2 to 53.0.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
60.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.575
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$201.25
Resistance
$249.50
Bollinger %B
0.75
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$244.71
Above
EMA 21
$238.99
Above
EMA 50
$232.21
Above
EMA 200
$220.15
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
61
Growth
46
Profitability
0
Financial Health
89
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
31.8×
P/B Ratio
4.74×
PEG Ratio
-1.37
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$258.81
52W Low
$189.03
Quality & Growth
ROE
16.7%
ROA
7.0%
Gross Margin
20.1%
Operating Margin
12.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.95
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 31.8 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.7x; PEG ratio of -1.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 3.07 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.95; Free cash flow margin of 0.5% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (7.94); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.5%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+3.4% -> -2.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -5.2%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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