NASDAQ · STOCK
Post Holdings
$88.34
52W $83.89 – $117.28
52/100
—
13.4
0.33
Explore POST Further
Is POST Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Post Holdings (POST) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 20, 2026.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.98) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Positive MACD histogram signals bullish momentum.
- Bullish candlestick pattern(s) detected: Hammer.
- Bullish candlestick patterns signal potential reversal or continuation of upside.
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- Daily trend is down — entering long positions against the trend.
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 2.4% downside vs 1.1% upside.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 20, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Value Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ P/E of 11.6 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 1.98 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.98) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2975.52)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.4 to 52.4.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-19 to 2026-07-20 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
49.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.209
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$85.22
Resistance
$88.24
Bollinger %B
0.42
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$86.99
Above
EMA 21
$88.25
Above
EMA 50
$91.63
Below
EMA 200
$99.06
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
83
Growth
61
Profitability
0
Financial Health
47
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.4×
P/B Ratio
1.31×
PEG Ratio
2.00
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$117.28
52W Low
$83.89
Quality & Growth
ROE
8.9%
ROA
2.5%
Gross Margin
26.6%
Operating Margin
10.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.39
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 13.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.3x; PEG ratio of 2.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 1.85 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.39; Free cash flow margin of 0.5% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (10.79); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 10.3%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+1.9% -> -8.9% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
Key Risks
- Daily trend is down — entering long positions against the trend.
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 2.4% downside vs 1.1% upside.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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