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Rivian Automotive

RIVN Consumer Cyclical Unknown Updated August 01, 2026
$15.22
52W $11.57 – $22.69
52/100
$18.48B
-5.9
1.60
AI Committee Verdict
Watch
Conviction: Contested · 43% agreement · 7 analysts
+6.2%
-5.7%
1.10:1
Contested

Is RIVN Bullish or Bearish?

Mixed. Innellis AI committee rates Rivian Automotive (RIVN) Watch with a composite score of 52/100 , based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement. Last updated August 01, 2026.

What Would Change This View

Upgrade to Buy
Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.90 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
Downgrade to Reduce
Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.10 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.

Executive Summary

The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Value Analyst remains cautious — price-to-book of 5.3x prices in significant intangible value. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.

Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case
  • 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
  • Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
  • Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
  • Beta of 1.62 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
  • Price-to-book of 5.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
  • ROE of only -70.0% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
  • MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
  • Bollinger bandwidth of 23.3% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)

AI Investment Committee

Committee Consensus As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 73%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst bearish
30 / 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 5.3x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst bullish
77 / 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst neutral
48 / 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst bearish
35 / 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 23.3% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst bullish
70 / 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst neutral
60 / 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager neutral
45 / 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
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Investment Thesis Evolution

Committee score moved marginally from 50.0 to 52.1.

Analyst-level changes:
  • Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12); +1 bullish signal(s).
  • Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
  • Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).

Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)
34.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.222
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$14.36
Resistance
$16.17
Bollinger %B
0.03
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$16.43 Below
EMA 21
$16.69 Below
EMA 50
$16.47 Below
EMA 200
$15.76 Below

Fundamental Analysis

Valuation
88
Growth
95
Profitability
0
Financial Health
87
Cash Flow
13
Valuation
P/E Ratio -5.9×
P/B Ratio 3.82×
PEG Ratio -0.26
Dividend Yield 0.00%
52W High $22.69
52W Low $11.57
Quality & Growth
ROE -79.8%
ROA -24.5%
Gross Margin 4.9%
Operating Margin -60.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
Debt / Equity 1.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -5.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.8x; PEG ratio of -0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.8%; Return on assets of -0.2%; Net margin of -0.5%; Gross margin of 0.0%; Current ratio of 2.10 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.00; Free cash flow margin of 2.2% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-2.28); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 28.5%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-5.6% -> +19.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 42.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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Explore RIVN Further

📈 Rating History 💰 Earnings 📰 Recent Events 🔄 What Changed 📖 Thesis Evolution 🔍 Similar Stocks
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