NASDAQ · STOCK
Rivian Automotive
$15.22
52W $11.57 – $22.69
50/100
$18.48B
-5.9
1.60
Is RIVN Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Rivian Automotive (RIVN) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.00 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.00 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Value Analyst remains cautious — price-to-book of 5.3x prices in significant intangible value. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.61 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -70.0% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 21.9% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 75%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 5.3x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 21.9% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.0 to 50.0.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 60->77 (+17); +2 bullish signal(s).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
34.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.222
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$14.36
Resistance
$16.17
Bollinger %B
0.03
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$16.43
Below
EMA 21
$16.69
Below
EMA 50
$16.47
Below
EMA 200
$15.76
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
88
Growth
95
Profitability
0
Financial Health
87
Cash Flow
13
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-5.9×
P/B Ratio
3.82×
PEG Ratio
-0.26
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$22.69
52W Low
$11.57
Quality & Growth
ROE
-79.8%
ROA
-24.5%
Gross Margin
4.9%
Operating Margin
-60.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -5.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.8x; PEG ratio of -0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.8%; Return on assets of -0.2%; Net margin of -0.5%; Gross margin of 0.0%; Current ratio of 2.10 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.00; Free cash flow margin of 2.2% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-2.28); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 28.5%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-5.6% -> +19.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 42.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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