NASDAQ · STOCK
Smurfit Westrock
$45.97
52W $32.73 – $52.65
51/100
$24.11B
58.1
0.94
Is SW Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Smurfit Westrock (SW) Watch with a composite score of 51/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.03 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.97 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -20.7% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.8% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 63.2 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- ROE of only 2.1% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -20.7% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -52.2% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 22.4% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
51/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 83%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
43
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value
− P/E of 63.2 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -20.7% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 22.4% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.2 to 51.0.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 57% to 43%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
47.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.216
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$41.95
Resistance
$47.72
Bollinger %B
0.57
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$46.96
Below
EMA 21
$45.83
Above
EMA 50
$44.27
Above
EMA 200
$42.65
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
20
Profitability
0
Financial Health
70
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
58.1×
P/B Ratio
1.32×
PEG Ratio
5.89
Dividend Yield
0.04%
52W High
$52.65
52W Low
$32.73
Quality & Growth
ROE
3.2%
ROA
1.3%
Gross Margin
17.9%
Operating Margin
5.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.79
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 58.1 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.3x; PEG ratio of 5.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.0%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 1.45 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.79; Free cash flow margin of 0.3% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (1.95); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 19.8%; 5 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-2.9% -> +6.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -40.7%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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