NASDAQ · STOCK
Toyota Motor Corporation
$189.03
52W $166.10 – $248.90
54/100
$223.78B
10.4
0.32
Is TM Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 5 analysts with 80% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.97 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.03 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 76 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
80%
Analysts
5
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 40%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 76 is in overbought territory
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 57.3 to 54.0.
- Recommendation changed from Buy to Watch.
- Conviction strengthened -- analysts aligned more closely.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 50% to 80%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 44->58 (+14).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst abstained (was bullish at 80).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
66.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.680
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$185.05
Resistance
$190.62
Bollinger %B
0.90
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$185.41
Above
EMA 21
$181.49
Above
EMA 50
$182.29
Above
EMA 200
$195.05
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
56
Profitability
0
Financial Health
55
Cash Flow
35
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.4×
P/B Ratio
1.00×
PEG Ratio
-0.58
Dividend Yield
0.03%
52W High
$248.90
52W Low
$166.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
9.9%
ROA
3.8%
Gross Margin
16.7%
Operating Margin
7.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.08
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of -0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 1.27 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.08; Free cash flow margin of 0.1% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (428.42); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 12.0%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+34.9% -> -35.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
Get the Full TM Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →