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Toyota Motor Corporation

TM Consumer Cyclical Unknown Updated August 01, 2026
$189.03
52W $166.10 – $248.90
60/100
$223.78B
10.4
0.32
AI Committee Verdict
Watch
Conviction: Contested · 50% agreement · 6 analysts
+0.8%
-2.1%
0.40:1
Contested

Is TM Bullish or Bearish?

Mixed. Innellis AI committee rates Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) Watch with a composite score of 60/100 , based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement. Last updated August 01, 2026.

What Would Change This View

Upgrade to Buy
Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +0.18 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
Downgrade to Reduce
Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -19.82 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.

Executive Summary

The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.

Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case
  • P/E of 8.6 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
  • Price-to-book of 1.2x is a discount to asset value — Value
  • Dividend yield of 3.3% pays you to wait — Value
  • 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
  • MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
  • Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
  • EPS declining -18.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
  • Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)

AI Investment Committee

Committee Consensus As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 17%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst bullish
80 / 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 8.6 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst neutral
44 / 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -18.0% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst neutral
58 / 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst bullish
70 / 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst bullish
62 / 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager neutral
45 / 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
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Investment Thesis Evolution

Committee score strengthened from 54.0 to 59.8.

Analyst-level changes:
  • Growth Analyst: score 58->44 (-14); +1 bearish signal(s).
  • Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12).
  • Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
  • Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10).
  • Value Analyst joined: bullish at 80.

Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)
66.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.680
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$185.05
Resistance
$190.62
Bollinger %B
0.90
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$185.41 Above
EMA 21
$181.49 Above
EMA 50
$182.29 Above
EMA 200
$195.05 Below

Fundamental Analysis

Valuation
100
Growth
56
Profitability
0
Financial Health
55
Cash Flow
35
Valuation
P/E Ratio 10.4×
P/B Ratio 1.00×
PEG Ratio -0.58
Dividend Yield 0.03%
52W High $248.90
52W Low $166.10
Quality & Growth
ROE 9.9%
ROA 3.8%
Gross Margin 16.7%
Operating Margin 7.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
Debt / Equity 1.08
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of -0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 1.27 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.08; Free cash flow margin of 0.1% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (428.42); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 12.0%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+34.9% -> -35.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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📈 Rating History 💰 Earnings 📰 Recent Events 🔄 What Changed 📖 Thesis Evolution 🔍 Similar Stocks
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