NASDAQ · STOCK
ULTA
$489.63
52W $443.60 – $714.97
62/100
—
18.2
0.88
Explore ULTA Further
Is ULTA Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates ULTA (ULTA) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 20, 2026.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- RSI at or above 70 signals overbought conditions — bearish entry bias.
- Positive MACD histogram signals bullish momentum.
- Weekly trend: uptrend.
- Daily downtrend but weekly uptrend — possible early reversal but not yet confirmed on the daily.
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- RSI is overbought at 70.1 — momentum may be exhausted.
- Stochastic RSI (100.0) confirms overbought conditions.
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 20, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 44.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 10.5x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 43.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.02) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 12 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2975.52)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 62.1 to 62.1.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-19 to 2026-07-20 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
70.1
Overbought
MACD Histogram
4.253
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Bollinger %B
0.92
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$473.70
Above
EMA 21
$471.11
Above
EMA 50
$485.56
Above
EMA 200
$531.14
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
29
Growth
57
Profitability
1
Financial Health
62
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
18.2×
P/B Ratio
8.28×
PEG Ratio
4.34
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$714.97
52W Low
$443.60
Quality & Growth
ROE
41.1%
ROA
16.5%
Gross Margin
39.3%
Operating Margin
12.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.89
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 18.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 8.3x; PEG ratio of 4.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.4%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 1.31 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.89; Free cash flow margin of 0.7% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (23.94); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 10.6%; EPS growth decelerating (+55.8% -> -3.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Key Risks
- RSI is overbought at 70.1 — momentum may be exhausted.
- Stochastic RSI (100.0) confirms overbought conditions.
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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