NASDAQ · STOCK
Alibaba Group Holding
$112.33
52W $91.99 – $192.67
56/100
$263.29B
16.9
0.53
Price History (6M)
Executive Summary
7 analysts weighed in with 43% agreement on a bullish lean. Portfolio Manager: Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy. Growth Analyst: EPS declining -17.8% YoY despite any revenue growth. Overall recommendation: WATCH.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- RSI at or above 70 signals overbought conditions — bearish entry bias.
- Positive MACD histogram signals bullish momentum.
- Weekly trend: uptrend.
- Daily downtrend but weekly uptrend — possible early reversal but not yet confirmed on the daily.
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- RSI is overbought at 73.1 — momentum may be exhausted.
- Stochastic RSI (100.0) confirms overbought conditions.
- Daily trend is down — entering long positions against the trend.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 7.7% downside vs 4.9% upside.
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Value Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
Growth Analyst
bearish
29
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -17.8% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bearish
39
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.25) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 27.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bullish
75
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book is healthy enough that position-sizing here is a matter of stock selection, not portfolio constraints
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
73.1
Overbought
MACD Histogram
2.425
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$103.71
Resistance
$117.80
Bollinger %B
0.81
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$104.77
Above
EMA 21
$106.75
Above
EMA 50
$115.91
Below
EMA 200
$132.23
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
93
Growth
17
Profitability
52
Financial Health
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.9×
P/B Ratio
1.92×
PEG Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
0.93%
52W High
$192.67
52W Low
$91.99
Quality & Growth
ROE
1022.0%
ROA
563.0%
Gross Margin
3981.0%
Operating Margin
490.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
+274.0%
Debt / Equity
0.25
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.9x; Revenue growth (YoY) of 2.7%; EPS growth (YoY) of -17.8%; Return on equity of 10.2%; Return on assets of 5.6%; Net margin of 10.3%; Gross margin of 39.8%; Current ratio of 1.28 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.25; Most recent quarter missed estimates by 89.5%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+62.6% -> -91.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Key Risks
- RSI is overbought at 73.1 — momentum may be exhausted.
- Stochastic RSI (100.0) confirms overbought conditions.
- Daily trend is down — entering long positions against the trend.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 7.7% downside vs 4.9% upside.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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