NASDAQ · STOCK
Builders FirstSource
$66.41
52W $65.10 – $151.03
47/100
$7.15B
72.2
1.42
Is BLDR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Watch with a composite score of 47/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +13.00 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -7.00 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 27 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 23.9% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
47/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 92%
of 54 Basic Materials peers
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 23.9% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− News sentiment is negative (-0.20 across 26 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 46.1 to 47.0.
- Conviction strengthened -- analysts aligned more closely.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 57% to 83%.
- New bearish signals: 6 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 8 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Growth Analyst, Macro Analyst.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 22->52 (+30); +1 bearish signal(s); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 47->41 (-6); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst abstained (was neutral at 58).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
29.2
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.771
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$65.33
Resistance
$67.43
Bollinger %B
0.07
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$70.01
Below
EMA 21
$73.11
Below
EMA 50
$76.52
Below
EMA 200
$93.78
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
65
Growth
39
Profitability
0
Financial Health
91
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
72.2×
P/B Ratio
1.80×
PEG Ratio
-0.84
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$151.03
52W Low
$65.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
10.0%
ROA
3.9%
Gross Margin
29.2%
Operating Margin
3.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.16
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 72.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.8x; PEG ratio of -0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 1.79 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.16; Free cash flow margin of 0.7% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (5.88); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 9.5%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-75.9% -> +333.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -50.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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