NASDAQ · STOCK
Casey's
$871.68
52W $490.00 – $927.85
59/100
$32.23B
45.2
0.62
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is CASY Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Casey's (CASY) Buy with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.44 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.56 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Some positive signals exist — eps growing 30.9% yoy — but they are not yet strong enough to justify a Buy. The committee is monitoring for confirmation.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 18.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 30.9% YoY — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 45.3 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 7.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 16%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 18.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 45.3 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 30.9% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 64.2 to 58.6.
- Committee agreement increased modestly from 60% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
- New analyst(s) joined: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 82->79 (-4); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst joined: neutral at 42.
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
62.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.798
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$739.99
Resistance
$924.60
Bollinger %B
0.77
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$861.34
Above
EMA 21
$848.44
Above
EMA 50
$828.18
Above
EMA 200
$715.32
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
26
Growth
81
Profitability
0
Financial Health
53
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
45.2×
P/B Ratio
8.17×
PEG Ratio
1.46
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$927.85
52W Low
$490.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
18.1%
ROA
8.0%
Gross Margin
24.6%
Operating Margin
5.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.74
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 45.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 8.2x; PEG ratio of 1.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 1.01 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.74; Free cash flow margin of 0.5% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (19.47); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 30.0%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-36.9% -> +25.2% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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