NASDAQ · STOCK
Cava Group
$65.25
52W $43.41 – $98.79
54/100
$7.60B
122.5
1.69
Is CAVA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Cava Group (CAVA) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.47 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.53 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case. Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 121.4 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.77 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 121.4 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 8.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -51.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 23.5% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 46%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 121.4 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -51.0% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 23.5% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.6 to 53.5.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 57% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
43.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.382
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$58.35
Resistance
$71.43
Bollinger %B
0.37
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$65.43
Below
EMA 21
$68.19
Below
EMA 50
$73.22
Below
EMA 200
$75.62
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
89
Profitability
0
Financial Health
97
Cash Flow
35
Valuation
P/E Ratio
122.5×
P/B Ratio
9.37×
PEG Ratio
-2.14
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$98.79
52W Low
$43.41
Quality & Growth
ROE
8.2%
ROA
4.7%
Gross Margin
18.6%
Operating Margin
7.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.62
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 122.5 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.4x; PEG ratio of -2.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 2.65 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.62; Free cash flow margin of 0.2% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (0.33); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.5%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-66.7% -> +400.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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