NASDAQ · STOCK
Churchill Downs Inc.
$84.28
52W $79.40 – $118.35
50/100
$5.88B
14.4
0.67
Is CHDN Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Churchill Downs Inc. (CHDN) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 7 analysts with 86% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.11 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.89 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 37.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 7.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 5.11 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -3.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 5.11) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.60 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
86%
Analysts
7
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 75%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 37.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 7.9x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -3.8% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 5.11) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.3 to 49.9.
- Conviction changed from moderate to high.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 71% to 86%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.115
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$81.46
Resistance
$90.89
Bollinger %B
0.38
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$85.49
Below
EMA 21
$85.79
Below
EMA 50
$86.92
Below
EMA 200
$93.57
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
85
Growth
70
Profitability
1
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.4×
P/B Ratio
4.40×
PEG Ratio
-42.29
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$118.35
52W Low
$79.40
Quality & Growth
ROE
37.6%
ROA
5.1%
Gross Margin
52.9%
Operating Margin
24.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.56
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 14.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.4x; PEG ratio of -42.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.4%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.5%; Current ratio of 0.36 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.56; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (9.79); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.1%; EPS growth accelerating (+24.7% -> +185.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 11.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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