NASDAQ · STOCK
Choice Hotels
$111.62
52W $84.04 – $127.53
51/100
$5.07B
14.9
0.68
Is CHH Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Choice Hotels (CHH) Watch with a composite score of 51/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.68 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.32 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Technical Analyst sees a compelling case — price structure making higher highs and higher lows. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 10.52) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.6 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 169.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.18 across 11 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 24.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 10.52 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 10.52) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.87 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
51/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 63%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ P/E of 14.6 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 24.3x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 10.52) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.18 across 11 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.7 to 51.3.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->68 (+10).
- Value Analyst: score 50->55 (+5); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
51.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.365
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$111.04
Resistance
$114.71
Bollinger %B
0.65
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$111.82
Below
EMA 21
$111.01
Above
EMA 50
$110.29
Above
EMA 200
$109.37
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
64
Growth
26
Profitability
3
Financial Health
6
Cash Flow
38
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.9×
P/B Ratio
37.44×
PEG Ratio
1.16
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$127.53
52W Low
$84.04
Quality & Growth
ROE
204.1%
ROA
12.7%
Gross Margin
44.5%
Operating Margin
27.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
15.35
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 14.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 37.4x; PEG ratio of 1.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 2.0%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.2%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 0.95 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 15.35; Free cash flow margin of 1.1% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (5.33); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 19.7%; EPS growth decelerating (-23.8% -> -33.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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