NASDAQ · STOCK
D. R. Horton
$143.03
52W $131.75 – $184.55
59/100
$40.01B
13.6
1.36
Is DHI Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates D. R. Horton (DHI) Watch with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +1.29 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -18.71 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 13.3 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.25) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.38 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -3.5% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -15.7% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 13%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 13.3 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Revenue declining -3.5% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.25) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.8 to 58.7.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
36.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.376
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$140.10
Resistance
$154.18
Bollinger %B
0.18
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$146.37
Below
EMA 21
$148.60
Below
EMA 50
$149.86
Below
EMA 200
$149.72
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
99
Growth
76
Profitability
1
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.6×
P/B Ratio
1.73×
PEG Ratio
-0.85
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$184.55
52W Low
$131.75
Quality & Growth
ROE
14.8%
ROA
10.1%
Gross Margin
22.6%
Operating Margin
11.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.30
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 13.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.7x; PEG ratio of -0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 9.84 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.30; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (11.51); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.4%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+10.3% -> +42.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -4.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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