NASDAQ · STOCK
Expedia Group
$294.81
52W $174.05 – $312.40
56/100
$33.75B
24.6
1.23
Is EXPE Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Expedia Group (EXPE) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.15 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.85 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 34.2% yoy. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 4.80) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 147.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 34.2% YoY — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 27.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 4.80 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.80) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.73 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.4% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 32%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 147.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 27.0x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 34.2% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
33
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.80) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.1 to 55.9.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 6 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral.
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 61->69 (+8).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
67.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
2.444
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$219.53
Resistance
$303.07
Bollinger %B
0.91
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$284.11
Above
EMA 21
$273.08
Above
EMA 50
$259.11
Above
EMA 200
$240.06
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
54
Growth
70
Profitability
2
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
24.6×
P/B Ratio
62.34×
PEG Ratio
0.73
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$312.40
52W Low
$174.05
Quality & Growth
ROE
100.8%
ROA
5.3%
Gross Margin
90.3%
Operating Margin
16.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
8.17
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 24.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 62.3x; PEG ratio of 0.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 1.0%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.9%; Current ratio of 0.73 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 8.17; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (38.46); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 40.9%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth roughly steady (-50.1% -> -48.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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