NASDAQ · STOCK
Greif, Inc.
$86.79
52W $55.75 – $88.50
58/100
$4.00B
4.9
0.78
Is GEF Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Greif, Inc. (GEF) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +17.26 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -2.74 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 4.5 is inexpensive for the broad market. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 24.5% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 4.5 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 35.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.8% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 355.9% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -29.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- RSI at 91 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 84 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 24.5% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 20%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
76
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 4.5 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 355.9% YoY
− Revenue declining -29.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 91 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 24.5% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.31 across 13 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.9 to 57.7.
- Committee agreement fell modestly from 67% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 5 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 7 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
- New analyst(s) joined: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 85->62 (-23); +1 bearish signal(s); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst joined: bullish at 76.
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
86.4
Overbought
MACD Histogram
1.100
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Bollinger %B
0.97
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$82.43
Above
EMA 21
$78.30
Above
EMA 50
$73.82
Above
EMA 200
$68.72
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
99
Growth
68
Profitability
1
Financial Health
70
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
4.9×
P/B Ratio
1.64×
PEG Ratio
0.01
Dividend Yield
0.03%
52W High
$88.50
52W Low
$55.75
Quality & Growth
ROE
28.8%
ROA
14.6%
Gross Margin
22.8%
Operating Margin
4.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.41
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 4.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.6x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.3%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 1.29 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.41; Free cash flow margin of 3.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-4.06); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 43.8%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+6.8% -> +46.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 24.4%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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