NASDAQ · STOCK
Graphic Packaging
$10.74
52W $8.79 – $23.47
48/100
$3.17B
11.5
0.68
Is GPK Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Graphic Packaging (GPK) Watch with a composite score of 48/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.95 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.05 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 15.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
48/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 89%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 48.9 to 48.0.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 43% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 6 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 23->35 (+12).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: score 53->58 (+5).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst abstained (was bullish at 65).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
42.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.010
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$8.79
Resistance
$11.61
Bollinger %B
0.48
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$11.02
Below
EMA 21
$10.88
Below
EMA 50
$10.72
Above
EMA 200
$13.06
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
48
Profitability
0
Financial Health
44
Cash Flow
35
Valuation
P/E Ratio
11.5×
P/B Ratio
0.98×
PEG Ratio
-0.21
Dividend Yield
0.04%
52W High
$23.47
52W Low
$8.79
Quality & Growth
ROE
13.3%
ROA
3.8%
Gross Margin
16.9%
Operating Margin
8.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.77
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 11.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of -0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 1.41 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.77; Free cash flow margin of 0.2% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (0.52); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 56.0%; EPS growth decelerating (-50.0% -> -69.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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