NASDAQ · STOCK
Home Depot (The)
$332.02
52W $289.10 – $426.75
48/100
$331.00B
23.5
0.95
Is HD Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Home Depot (The) (HD) Watch with a composite score of 48/100
, based on 7 analysts with 86% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.91 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.09 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 113.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.8% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 29.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 4.35 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -4.5% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.35) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
48/100
Agreement
86%
Analysts
7
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 87%
of 124 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 113.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 29.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -4.5% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.35) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 48.9 to 48.1.
- Conviction changed from moderate to high.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 71% to 86%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
43.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.961
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$331.46
Resistance
$353.55
Bollinger %B
0.27
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$335.38
Below
EMA 21
$336.23
Below
EMA 50
$334.23
Below
EMA 200
$346.71
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
55
Growth
50
Profitability
2
Financial Health
10
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
23.5×
P/B Ratio
23.78×
PEG Ratio
-5.34
Dividend Yield
0.03%
52W High
$426.75
52W Low
$289.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
110.5%
ROA
13.5%
Gross Margin
33.1%
Operating Margin
12.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
4.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 23.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 23.8x; PEG ratio of -5.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 1.1%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 1.04 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 4.18; Free cash flow margin of 0.8% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (14.40); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 2.2%; EPS growth accelerating (-27.3% -> +26.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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